Management Skills

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:31Claim

   People don't realize what's happening in the background, and that's because of these ETFs. This is where all of the inflows are coming from. If I was the man behind the curtain and I knew that the system I had come to rely on for my existence was completely and utterly screwed, I would figure out a way to make everyone lose more than me.

2. 01:04Quote · condensed

   If I know I'm going to lose, guess who I'm taking down with me? Everybody. I don't care. I want everybody going down.

3. 01:37Claim

   You talk to Bob in accounting. Bob says, no, we can't turn the thing off. We can't arrest everybody that uses it, we can't stop anybody from using it. So before it gets too popular, before too many people catch on to what this tool can be used for, we can take advantage of the dummies.

4. 02:08Claim

   It's a tool. You can't outlaw this tool because you cannot control the tool. But if nobody understands how to use the tool, you can take advantage of them. There's a brief window here where, if you knew you were going to lose, you could make everyone lose more than you.

5. 02:41Claim

   How could the people at the top make people lose more than them? You would want to set up a vehicle to acquire, to centralize as much Bitcoin as you possibly could, so you're going to want favorable laws to be able to accumulate large amounts of this asset in your jurisdiction, where you have control.

6. 03:15Claim

   The more centralized you can make it, the easier it's going to be to confiscate later on, because Bitcoin is extremely difficult to confiscate, if not impossible, when held correctly. So how do you get around that? You incentivize. You remove all of the friction from the process of actually getting to the stage where it's difficult to confiscate.

7. 03:15Analogy

   You put a little bit of cheese on the ground and you say, hey, hey, hey, whoa, come over here, look at this, you've never seen this before, this is nice and easy.

8. 03:47Reference

   If you cut that out by not allowing the education to trickle through the extended order, because you can fast track the gains to individuals who have all of the assets in the first place, that's going to be enormously advantageous.

9. 03:47Claim

   First play in the playbook: make sure that the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction are favorable to accumulating in a centralized fashion as much Bitcoin as humanly possible.

10. 04:29Reference

    Cue the ETFs. Now, with the click of a button, instead of waiting two weeks and sending in 15 different passport photos and your grandma's maiden name, you can just have your normal brokerage account and immediately get exposure to the asset.

11. 05:01Claim

    Now, you don't get access to Bitcoin. You get exposure to Bitcoin. Very different things.

12. 05:01Quote

    You don't get access to Bitcoin. You get exposure to Bitcoin. Very different things.

13. 06:09Claim

    What needs to happen is the funds need to flow into a centralized area so I can then manipulate that centralized entity into handing over the Bitcoin itself, or just playing ball through intimidation, through regulation, through new laws. I can [audio unclear: '60-102'] all of the Bitcoin in a centralized location.

14. 06:43Claim

    If there's 99.9% of the population who don't have this thing and 0.01% of the population who do, and you're looking for votes, who would you blame? It just happens to work with the narrative that the 1% get it all and the 99% get completely screwed.

15. 07:46Prediction

    Other countries are going to wise up and go, I'm holding dog shit relative to Bitcoin, I don't want to hold dog shit, let me get Bitcoin. I'm going to stop buying these treasuries. But I still have to unload the ones I have somewhere, and there's not that many places you can go to with the kind of liquidity you need at that level.

16. 08:20Claim

    What would I do if I was in charge? Let's let this shit coin go to the moon, inflate that thing to some crazy level, buy as much Bitcoin as you can without telling anyone ever. Who are we taking advantage of if that is the case? Everyone that is holding the debt. Who's holding the debt? All of our competition.

17. 08:50Prediction

    Say the year is 2024, let's say 2032, two more cycles. By that stage, eight years from now, let's say it's a million dollars a coin. If you bought the ETF and you're able to hold on, you're going to look like a genius.

18. 09:58Prediction

    Twenty-four hours later, I would reprice everything with a brand new peg that would devalue the money I just gave you by a factor of 100. Take that and shove it straight up your ass, because you put it all in a centralized location that I took over and now you can't have it.

19. 09:58Quote

    I become a god king and I never give up the throne.

20. 10:30Claim

    It's difficult now to get your hands on Bitcoin. Think about how much more free and clear cash you have to have sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in at these levels: Bitcoin at $70,000 versus, in 2016, I think the average was $600. That's a huge difference.

21. 11:37Claim · condensed

    For the first five or six years the folds are all pretty much on the original X-axis. As it starts to flip vertical, we're getting into the folds now where it makes a real difference to what you can do and the energy you can control.

22. 12:17Idea

    Eventually, no skill will be more rewarded, no action you can perform, no energy you can transform, will be as valuable as simply managing the energy that you currently have access to.

23. 12:55Quote

    How many times can you be right and still screw it up? The answer is a lot.

24. 12:55Claim

    The history of almost every successful billionaire that has come along in inflation-adjusted terms, the family empires they've created have completely fallen apart. You can list the number of successful ones on one hand that have still managed to stick around.

25. 13:31Claim

    Every single time you hear somebody talk about getting rid of Bitcoin, if they sell out of Bitcoin because it's made 10x or 100x and they get out, it's very, very challenging to get the same amount of Bitcoin that you once had.

26. 14:34Claim

    It's not the exact same opportunity, because the tool that is Bitcoin did not exist for the majority of these prior opportunities. But now that you do have that tool, it actually becomes easier.

27. 15:07Idea

    The answer to how you hold on to the most Bitcoin over time while accessing liquidity is borrow against it. It takes a different appetite for financial know-how, and it matters how important it is to pass on the energy that you have to the next generation.

28. 15:37Reference

    The smart thing to do for the entire extended order is to promote hyper Bitcoinization as fast as you can, because everyone will be better off.

29. 15:37Claim

    We get more information as we get more information. Everything becomes cheaper as everything becomes cheaper, and you're holding an asset that is fixed relative to the size of the energy that the extended order is able to accumulate.

30. 16:16Quote

    In talking to my future self, the strategy is never sell the Bitcoin.

31. 16:48Idea

    I'm calling every year a different fold. And the reason I'm saying fold is because people don't understand exponentials.

32. 16:48Analogy

    When you think about exponentials, you talk about folding a piece of paper. Seven folds and you can't fold it anymore, but if you could fold the paper 50 times, it would reach the moon.

33. 17:21Analogy

    30 linear steps versus 30 exponential steps. 30 linear steps gets you to the front gate of your house. 30 exponential steps get you around the world.

34. 17:51Quote

    The whole game is, can you end up with more Bitcoin than you started with? Can you continue to do that?

35. 19:25Claim

    The annual return on Bitcoin since 2013 is somewhere in the 80 percent area. Take the biggest year out, which is a thousand plus percent in 2017, and take the smallest year out, and it's somewhere around 80 percent, to be conservative.

36. 20:32Claim

    You don't want to put yourself in a weak position with something as volatile as Bitcoin, where you know it's going to go down 80 percent from wherever the highs get, and you're going to have to cover that minus 80 percent year with enough Bitcoin to not lose the collateral.

37. 20:32Quote

    That's the last thing you want, is to lose the collateral, because then all of the gains from not paying taxes are gone and all the Bitcoin is gone.

38. 21:06Prediction

    Distribution of the collateral based off of 40 percent gains for the next five years, then 20 percent gains for the five after that, then 15, then 10, even though that's not going to happen, even though it's only going to get faster and faster. It's best to play this conservative: you're significantly better off over a 10-year period, significantly better off over a 20-year period, never ever selling Bitcoin.

39. 22:12Claim

    To get the same amount of cash just by selling over the 20-year period would take a 100 Bitcoin portfolio down to 94.4, and you would have paid almost two million dollars in taxes.

40. 22:48Claim · condensed

    By borrowing against it you have all 100 of your Bitcoin, with an outstanding debt of two and a half Bitcoin. Even if you liquidated that in 20 years, you'd be basically at 97.5. So you're saving yourself almost three Bitcoin, which at four million dollars is twelve million dollars.

41. 22:48Quote

    Twelve million dollars is the salary that you were paid over that 20-year time frame, just to manage your Bitcoin, just to manage your money.

42. 23:58Claim · condensed

    There's no way it would take more than 100 hours in a year to manage that collateral, especially as you get used to it. Bitcoin has a 24-hour market, unlike stocks or real estate, which are all illiquid and take forever to sell, which means it should be cheaper to borrow against.

43. 24:29Reference

    That's a hell of a lot different than if you look at somewhere like Unchained. Unchained will give you a 15 percent interest rate.

44. 25:00Reference

    If you were dumb enough to put your money on BlockFi or Celsius or one of these things that is going to rehypothecate your Bitcoin, you're screwed, because now the risk is 100 percent and it's going to go to zero, because you're never getting your Bitcoin back.

45. 25:00Reference

    If you were dumb enough to put your money on BlockFi or Celsius or one of these things that is going to rehypothecate your Bitcoin, you're screwed.

46. 25:00Claim · condensed

    We're probably still a ways away from somebody blue chip coming into the market and allowing this. The incentive is going to come from the ETF side of things, because it's much easier to do this with an ETF, and they're making the honeypot larger and more sugary every time you look at it.

47. 25:34Claim

    You could play a strategy where you have a little bit in the ETFs and then you have the majority of your stack outside of it to get that loan percentage, or you could just wait, and eventually the benefits will begin to trickle down into self-custody holders, because that's just what the market will want.

48. 26:06Claim

    A handful of the ETFs are getting all of the volume while the other eight or so are getting crumbs versus the larger players, so the larger players are going to get more and more and more.

49. 26:39Prediction

    The interest rate on multisig collaborative custody lending like Unchained will go from 15 percent to 10 percent to 5 percent to eventually, you know, you'll be able to do what the bigwigs do and get it at 0.01 percent.

50. 27:12Prediction · condensed

    Or they may even pay you to allow them to have the Bitcoin, like a blue chip lender does now for the bigwigs.

51. 27:42Idea

    The challenge becomes not, oh man, I have to understand Bitcoin, no, you probably got that by now. Now it's how do I manage energy and how do I do it in the most efficient way possible.

52. 27:42Quote

    There's great managers and then there's dog shit managers, and the vast majority of people are dog shit managers.

53. 28:21Idea

    It is fun seeing the Bitcoin price go up. It's more fun realizing that finally the roles have been reversed. Finally, the squeeze, you get to participate in the squeeze rather than be squeezed.

54. 28:21Quote

    Finally the roles have been reversed. Finally the squeeze, you get to participate in the squeeze rather than be squeezed.

55. 28:52Claim

    The more that I put my boot in these people's faces, the more I'm going to have to do it, the harder it's going to have to be. And then the cat's going to be out of the bag that I'm the one behind this. Now I'm still going to do it, because the alternative is I'm screwed.

56. 29:24Claim

    Luckily for me, you can protect yourself as well. You don't have to participate in that game, except you don't want to sell Bitcoin. Think about how you're going to get it back.

57. 29:24Analogy

    Think about what you're going to have to do if you get off of a train that is running away at 40 percent every single year. What else can you do to make that 40 percent? There's not many ideas.

58. 31:18Claim

    You take the problem, you invert it. If I avoid doing all the things that screw it up, that leaves me with: I should probably never sell the Bitcoin, because I'm never going to be able to get access to the same amount. It's the fastest horse in the race.

59. 31:18Quote

    It's the fastest horse in the race. So I stay on the fastest horse.

60. 32:38Idea

    It is a limited system, and you want to get access to that limited system, and you're on the outside, you're going to have to pay for it. What are you going to pay for it in? Energy. Who are you going to give the energy to? The people that have the Bitcoin.

61. 32:38Quote

    If you've been in the game for a little bit, probably the most important thing you can do with your time and your energy is figure out how not to screw it up.