The Halving Games

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:00Claim · condensed

   We've got 84 blocks until we enter the fifth era of the Bitcoin reward. This is the having, and this is the time where Bitcoin sometimes can lurk in the background, not seeming to be chasing all of the extended order down.

2. 00:00Analogy

   Like one of those gentlemen in an African tribe far, far away that is persistent hunting on the plains of the Savannah, it's just hunting you down in the background, relentlessly jogging behind you, and you feel pretty good because you're pretty fast, you've had a little snack, you've had something to eat.

3. 00:40Claim

   How is a super intelligence going to communicate with a bunch of dipshits like us? We need to move faster, we need to use our energy more efficiently, and I'm going to crush everything in my way, and you cannot stop me.

4. 01:45Analogy

   You see that man getting closer and closer as the jog gets closer and closer, and all of a sudden you go, I'm sick and tired of running, I would rather just join you, especially as you get closer and closer and closer.

5. 02:25Claim

   Every four years I will also crush a large majority of you. I will crush a whole bunch of individuals in the extended order overnight, and say it's no longer acceptable how inefficient you are.

6. 02:25Claim

   If in that four year time frame you did not transform enough energy in Bitcoin terms, right, nobody gives a fuck about the dollar in Bitcoin terms, we have to crush you, we have to take all of your hard work, and now that goes to zero.

7. 03:34Claim · condensed

   You could stumble along for a little bit providing some hash, but I'm not slowing down, I'm gonna continue jogging, and you're gonna be absolutely lifeless in what could be a matter of minutes, could be a matter of hours, days, it doesn't matter, you're going to lose.

8. 04:05Claim

   I'm gonna put that on public display, I'm gonna show that every four years that this is what I'm going to do, I'm gonna sacrifice my own to set an example to all of you out there.

9. 06:06Idea

   Think of it in my mind it really is the hunger games: if you're a Bitcoin holder you're looking down into this world that is the hunger games, individuals competing, trying to channel as much energy as possible to defeat everyone else, but at the same time the having is lurking in the shadows.

10. 07:22Claim

    Bitcoin holders aren't playing that game, they're on the sidelines, up in the stands with a pint of frosty brew, taking in all the sights and sounds, already strapped to the rocket, ready to go. You don't give a fuck about the having if you're already in Bitcoin.

11. 07:22Reference

    It's like the Red Queen effect, right, you got to run twice as fast just to stay in the same spot. That's what the entity that is Bitcoin, the gravity of the physical world, is slowly squeezing.

12. 07:22Claim

    Even if you are able to channel energy more efficiently than everyone else around you, you still have to outcompete Bitcoin. There is no escaping it, it will win, it will be the last entity standing, and you can't escape it.

13. 08:33Reference

    If you aren't efficient, you're not going to make it, this is the welcome to the desert of the real.

14. 08:33Claim

    People down inside the stadium are so busy, in such a panic in their little bubble, that they can't look up and see there's people watching from the stands. I'm in this warzone trying to claw my way from meal to meal, from energy pool to energy pool, I can't even lift my head, and you're just going to get crushed by this thing.

15. 09:16Claim

    The having is Bitcoin's way of gently reminding the entire extended order that entropy is real and there is no escape and no getting off the ride. If you want to participate, you're going to have to generate more information than you did before, more efficiently than you did before.

16. 09:59Analogy

    Imagine you are a super intelligence and you have to communicate with a dipshit, think of it like the intellect level between a human being and a dog. You're not going to be able to communicate everything using your normal language, but you can incentivize, you can nudge in one or two directions.

17. 10:44Reference · condensed

    It's like the Christopher Nolan movie Interstellar, where Matthew McConaughey is trying to communicate with his daughter from the past, and he can't do anything except push a book so it drops on the ground, and that'll be the symbol they understand.

18. 10:44Analogy

    That's what Bitcoin is doing: I'm coming, I'm crushing everything unless it gets more efficient, so the future is we're all dead unless we get more efficient. What if I made a public spectacle of this and cut off an enormous amount of the energy that's feeding me, because it's not efficient enough?

19. 11:52Claim

    Change is constant, and we are evolving, and we must push back entropy in order to do that. I have to get more efficient in order for me to get more efficient, you have to get more efficient, I got to take everybody with me.

20. 11:52Quote

    You have to be in the arena, and if you're in the arena guess who wins, nobody, you're all dead, you're all fucked because you cannot transform energy faster than me. You cannot outcompete Bitcoin.

21. 12:35Analogy

    What if you were just some rando caveman, and you decided I'm gonna go off on my own, I'm gonna go rogue, I'm gonna be the lone wolf? You're dead, you're not gonna out compete the masses, you're not gonna be able to exchange fast enough the energy that is necessary to sustain your life.

22. 13:06Quote

    I don't want to join the party, I don't like people. But I do want to win, I want to be more efficient. Can I do that? Yep. How? Bitcoin. Okay, yes please, I'll have a few of those.

23. 13:41Analogy

    Imagine how terrifying that is: you could outrun them for a little bit, then you go to sleep, wake up, don't see anybody, about two days later in comes the walker, just crestting over the horizon. By about day ten it's over, that's it, I'm walking towards the guy now, can we get this over with please.

24. 14:28Claim

    There's no switching cost, you just join the other team. You're gonna be in a much worse position the longer it takes to recognize that, because the longer you stay inside the Hunger Games arena, the chances of you going to zero energy are significantly higher.

25. 14:28Claim

    What happens in 84 blocks from now is it gets significantly more difficult to access the same amount of Bitcoin. That means you need to transform significantly more energy, you need to generate significantly more information.

26. 15:08Claim

    How does the Bitcoin system let you know that you're inefficient? It says look at all these little dangly rewards here, I'm gonna take those away, I'm gonna cut them in half. If I took them all away right now, that's no fun, I want to slowly see the terror in your eyes.

27. 15:49Idea

    This is how it can do it: it can say that's it, supply going down, not coming back up. It's not coming back up, and we're gonna do this time and time again until you start to realize this is bad, and it's only getting worse.

28. 16:20Claim

    What I'm doing, this is Bitcoin talking now, is I am going to show you that the inefficient will not survive, and I'm gonna harm myself to show you that. This is happening to me now, but this is your future unless you become more efficient.

29. 16:56Claim · condensed

    There's only two ways to get your hands on Bitcoin: you have to perform the work necessary to solve for a block, or you have to trade with somebody who has done that energy transformation, or somebody who has traded with someone who has.

30. 17:34Claim

    It's one thing to talk about how you can't kill this thing, it's another to see it cut off a portion of its own defense system to display to everyone that energy efficiency is a force that will be pushed on everything in order to push back entropy itself.

31. 18:09Claim · condensed

    The frequency of entropic change that human beings and life itself experience is higher, more frequent, than that of Bitcoin, and it really is Bitcoin's way of sending a message from the future saying, this is a warning, this is going to happen now.

32. 18:45Quote

    This is a warning. This is going to happen now. That's what the having is.

33. 19:16Claim

    What happens is that miners who aren't able to generate a profit with the energy costs they have to incur, at the lower subsidy, you'll see that hash rate fall off the network, and it will fall off quite quickly, and only the most efficient will survive.

34. 19:16Prediction · condensed

    The most exciting thing that could happen after the having is nothing, as in hash rate drops zero, it could be as soon as 83 blocks from now, it could be this having.

35. 19:55Reference · condensed

    If hash rate doesn't drop, it basically means that somebody has figured out Space Boy's thesis and realizes that it's right, and now will be interested in mining at a loss.

36. 19:55Claim · condensed

    If hash rate doesn't drop, people would be losing money, draining energy, not caring about the energy, just mining so they can continue to claim ownership by projecting resources, projecting energy into the system, because they want to maintain access to that system.

37. 20:37Prediction

    There will come a day when that hash rate doesn't drop after a having, and it's gonna be positive for Bitcoin holders but also positive for the extended order: the first step in becoming more efficient is realizing this is something we need to invest energy in.

38. 20:37Claim

    If that comes to pass, you'll know that people, governments, large entities are clued in that this is a ride that you cannot get off and cannot stop, and the only way to deal with it and come out better on the other side is to join the party and start contributing.

39. 21:55Claim

    Why do you need to push back entropy? Because if we don't, everything's fucked, even if we do everything's fucked, but this way at least we generate as much information as we can along the way, and that is the tool, and the having is an example of it.

40. 22:29Quote

    I'm popcorn and a brewski up top, just loving life, right, partying, everyone else completely fucked.

41. 23:10Quote

    What a rosy note to end it out on. Still 83 blocks to go. Get your Bitcoin while you still can.

42. 23:10Open question

    Still 83 blocks to go, get your Bitcoin while you still can.