The Path to Bitcoin
Episodes / Era 12 · The return / Ep 194
Episode 194 · 29 Jul 2026 · 32:58

States that Travel

Being early and being wrong are the same position, and the original Bitcoin thesis, the one that expected people to figure it out quickly, was 90 percent wrong. Out of that error comes a definition of knowledge: arrangements that keep their shape as they travel.

The one-minute version

What it argues against

The early assumption that Bitcoin adoption would be fast because people are smart.

I was so wrong so early, which is the same thing as being wrong.00:44
I'm the fucking constraint. I'm the person, I'm not going to let you sell. I'm not going to feel bad when it's down 50%.08:11
Mind blown.32:23

Every passage, on the record.

  1. 00:00Reference

    Much like Michael Saylor has talked about in his interviews: you think people are going to realize this and then you need to spend every single moment on it to get as much as you possibly can, because everyone's going to figure this out super fast.

  2. 00:44Quote

    I was so wrong so early, which is the same thing as being wrong.

  3. 01:17Quote

    That's a good business.

  4. 01:50Claim

    In a Bitcoin denominated world where there is no fiat, you're going to have to actually produce value.

  5. 02:21Idea

    What is allowing me to solve that problem is my understanding of Bitcoin, the knowledge that I have in Bitcoin, which is information with causal power.

  6. 02:55Quote

    I want to be in charge. I don't want you in charge. This is a strictly selfish operation. I don't know you. I don't care about you. I want the future me to be better off than the me right now.

  7. 02:55Claim

    Bitcoin is a closed system and it's absolutely scarce, and that means the TASOE is going to constantly be increasing, because the universe is going to find ways to generate more and more knowledge.

  8. 02:55Idea

    Explanatory knowledge generators, which is what human beings are, are better at generating knowledge than anything that has come before, whether it's reflective knowledge, which is life, DNA is the most classic example, or structural knowledge, which is planets and stars and everything based on the laws of physics that draws matter together.

  9. 03:47Claim

    If there is no persistence, if there's no continuity between state transitions, which is the passing of time, you don't get time unless there are state transitions that persist. You wouldn't even know that anything changed.

  10. 03:47Prediction

    Explanatory knowledge is going to overtake structural knowledge as the driving force for constraint in the physical universe.

  11. 04:20Quote

    Fuck, I was so far off. This is going to take so much longer.

  12. 04:53Claim · condensed

    The vast majority of people are not going to figure this out, not because they're incapable, there's nothing that physically stops them. They are Turing complete just like I am, they have the ability to arrange the information in their mind to grok what Bitcoin is allowing for, it's just they have so many other problems.

  13. 06:06Idea

    You go back to the JUG analogy that I constantly reference. It's like the value that individuals are willing to share their energy with you is that you aren't constraining matter, you're taking the clay, and you are the one, you are the pawl, you are the click that doesn't go backwards. You are the irreversible constraint that says, I'm going to take this clay, I'm going to make it a JUG, I'm going to constrain it for you, I hand you the constraint.

  14. 06:06Analogy

    You are the clay, and you are the one, you are the pawl, you are the click that doesn't go backwards. You are the irreversible constraint that says: I'm going to take this clay, I'm going to make it a jug, I'm going to constrain it for you, I hand you the constraint.

  15. 06:06Claim

    It would have been hard for you to constrain the clay because you didn't know how; you didn't have all the background knowledge that builds off previous knowledge, stacked like a pyramid of people figuring out how to constrain matter better with less energy input, raising the cost of falsifiability over the cost of preservation forever in this outward spiral.

  16. 07:02Claim · condensed

    Bitcoin wins not because it doesn't die, but because it's going to outcompete everything else in the marketplace, since everything else is fiat, and fiat has an edit button, and if there's an edit button and individuals involved, they're going to choose to use it because it's the path of least resistance.

  17. 07:36Idea

    This is the cost of falsifiability versus the cost of preservation. It's very, very cheap to falsify fiat. You're not going to be able to preserve it.

  18. 07:36Quote

    No one's going to figure this out. Nobody cares. The most amount of value that I can provide to generate as much wealth as possible is to just get people not to understand Bitcoin, not to explain it to them.

  19. 08:11Quote

    I'm the fucking constraint. I'm the person, I'm not going to let you sell. I'm not going to feel bad when it's down 50%.

  20. 09:22Idea

    It bugged me that that's the most amount of value that I can provide to the extended order, and by the extended order I mean the universe itself. What's the most amount of value that I can provide if value is constraining matter and opening up accessible phase space to everyone else around me?

  21. 09:22Reference

    By the extended order I mean to the universe itself.

  22. 09:52Analogy

    Imagine you're in some small town in the Wild West. What do they need to survive? Water. You're the water guy, you come in, you dig the well. Giving them water gives them future possibilities at transforming phase space; if they don't have that, they don't persist.

  23. 10:24Analogy

    I'm going to constrain that bitch, I'm going to lock it in, put stone all around the edges so it can't get contaminated. It's always going to be there, the well, deep and rigid; it's going to take a lot of energy and knowledge embodied in me and in the stone.

  24. 10:55Claim

    The only bummer is you have to do that again and again, because the matter that you have constrained is not copyable. If you want to go to the next town over, you got to dig another well, and inject all that energy again.

  25. 10:55Claim · condensed

    With software you only have to constrain matter one time, it's copyable, but then how do you make it scarce? You have to build walls of logic. What Bitcoin comes along and does is say no more walls of logic, now we can do walls of work, walls that are physical.

  26. 12:02Reference

    Austrian economics, like all of that, it's gone; that order has been generated, it has persisted over time because it's so well constrained.

  27. 12:37Reference

    Bitcoin is increasing wealth, but it takes state transitions, it takes the ebbs and flows of all the other systems, and the yen carry trade and everything else that goes along with it.

  28. 13:40Idea

    It's not like you're hoarding by holding lots of Bitcoin, you're actually deferring. It is the charitable act. The charitable act is I generated all of this value, all of this accessible phase space by constraining matter, and I did it, and I am not going to ask for it back from the extended order. I'm going to allow other individuals to use that.

  29. 14:43Claim

    Bitcoin is the first time we are able to look at the model of the physical universe from the outside. We can't step outside the laws of physics and view the entire structure of the physical universe from the outside, but now we have this model, and that's exciting for information theory and epistemology.

  30. 17:04Event

    When was the first episode of the show? Maybe 2021, 2020 probably. I wanted to test out the theories to try and see if there was any sort of criticism.

  31. 17:34Quote

    People will come when they feel the pain.

  32. 17:34Idea

    Wealth is the total sum of transformations that one can bring about in the world.

  33. 18:10Quote

    You use Bitcoin in the actual world and you're like, oh my God, I'm living. I am the tip of the spear.

  34. 18:52Idea

    None of it fucking matters. The wall of energy that miners produce to protect the ledger is going to increase, even if right now it's going down because AI and people are competing for it.

  35. 18:52Prediction

    The wall of energy that miners produce to protect the ledger is going to increase.

  36. 19:22Reference

    This is the Jeff Booth thing, you don't know how bad you're getting hosed.

  37. 19:22Claim

    Abundance is just creating more stuff to choose between, more arrangements to choose between.

  38. 19:58Idea

    You are the pawl. Some crazy LLM, guess what, they can generate a fuckload of information way faster than you, but what does it matter if they're wrong? Where is the commitment to an irreversible future state? There is none, there is no cost. You are the pawl, you decide.

  39. 19:58Claim · condensed

    You are the part in the equation of what is intelligent about interacting with Claude or ChatGPT. It's just noise without you. You provided the constraint in the first place, and then you committed to a physical substrate.

  40. 20:34Idea

    One of the things that I've been harping on is that knowledge is arrangements that travel. What do I mean by travel? I mean travel, yes, across physical substrates, like geographically, but also depth across time, across state transitions.

  41. 21:08Analogy · condensed

    The arrangement of neurons in my head hits the vocal cords, air is manipulated, that's traveling out my face in a physical substrate, hitting the microphone, turning into a signal, into the recorder, recording it in a pattern of ones and zeros, which gets compressed and sent off to a server, where you download it and hear it, and the pattern is traveling.

  42. 22:08Claim

    If it maintains its shape, that is the information as it goes. If it's useful, if it is useful at causing transformations, it will stick around over depth, other people will find it and build on top of it. If not, it's just going to go away. It's been getting cheaper and cheaper to maintain this arrangement because I can just store this for a nickel on some cloud server forever.

  43. 22:44Idea

    How far it spreads in breadth over the information manifold, over the extended order, the number of people who would take this on board and find that their wealth increases, that's the true reach of the arrangement that I had in my brain that I put out my mouth into this microphone.

  44. 23:48Claim

    They just want a solution to their problem, which is their life sucks, they don't understand why it sucks. You could take the time to explain it to them, but that's the guy building the well every single time somebody wants something to drink; it's like, no, I got the well, you give me a dollar and I send the bucket down.

  45. 24:57Idea

    The main problem, the biggest problem that I'm trying to tackle now is this K equals Ic squared. I didn't know that computation was physical, I had no idea there was some ethereal realm where ideas lived. Then you figure it out and it's all physical, everything's physical, it has to be instantiated in some sort of physical substrate, every single thing, and then it must be bound by the laws of physics.

  46. 25:27Claim

    Gravity is the main thing that has compressed or constrained matter since the dawn of the universe. The one thing that can escape gravity is explanatory knowledge. How does it do it? Because it is mobile, it can jump physical substrates to substrates that are not being constrained by gravity, or are being constrained less by gravity.

  47. 26:41Claim · condensed

    We should be maximizing for knowledge generation, and the extended order should also be maximizing for it, because it wants the same thing I want, which is to persist. It's not a mystery how you improve the environment to maximize for knowledge generation, you look into the past, since the Renaissance or the Enlightenment, and see what has proved the best environment for conjecture and criticism.

  48. 27:24Claim

    LLMs are great for generating information, they don't have a pawl, there's nothing that clicks over into an irreversible future, nothing sticks. You want to run that as many times as possible, and then criticize all the things that are working because they could be working better, over and over again.

  49. 28:26Claim

    An environment open to knowledge generators wouldn't be centrally planned, it wouldn't be one dipshit trying to arrange information in a certain way, it wouldn't be where things are locked in place and can't be changed. It would look like freedom maximization.

  50. 28:58Prediction · condensed

    It's going to grow exponentially, even though it's not going to continue at the speed it has up until now.

  51. 29:38Idea

    We're never going to get to a spot where the physical constraint and the horn, Gabriel's horn, pinches off to another universe. That's what happens when matter is at C max, maximum constraint, that's where you get your black hole.

  52. 29:38Idea

    We're never going to have that with explanatory knowledge because entropy is the exhaust of order generation. The more order generation that happens through explanatory knowledge, the more exhaust you're going to get, because everything is physical and has to be instantiated in a physical substrate, so as you generate order something has to be pushed out of the way.

  53. 30:45Idea

    It's gotta be the, well, the charitable act is really important. Are you fucking kidding? So that other people that are in the legacy game can continue to generate yield from dipshits. Yes, absolutely matters, we want more capital, more dollars coming into Bitcoin, chasing up the price, making it more valuable, more stable.

  54. 30:45Claim

    Why is MSTR more important than ever? Because they can access capital that couldn't access Bitcoin before, they're plugging into a pool that was inaccessible. That's smart, that's providing value, that's constraining matter, it's opening a phase space for individuals who wouldn't have had that phase space open to them.

  55. 31:18Claim

    If you're some Joe Schmo buying MSTR thinking you're doing something good, you're in trouble, he's accessing capital that would otherwise not be allowed to access Bitcoin. If you know about it, you're still doing it, that's crazy, but they're out there.

  56. 31:50Quote

    The benefit of Bitcoin is you can just do nothing, never have to worry about it again, you solve it once.

  57. 32:23Claim

    It is copyable, all the bits are copyable, so how is it scarce? To actually change the UTXO, to move it from one state to another state, the state transition, that's what's not scarce, that's what's super hard to do.

  58. 32:23Quote

    Mind blown.