Bearish Sentiment

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:00Claim

   If you've never been through a bear market this is a beautiful time for you. In fact, I'm envious at the pain that you feel. It's rare in the fiat world where that is nerfed to the gills to be able to experience the kind of real pain that goes through when they are truly experiencing the negative repercussions of decisions that they've made.

2. 01:15Open question

   As interest wanes and max pain gives way to indifference, a shift occurs. And I don't know why the shift occurs. It's any number of reasons which I'm sure could all be podcasts unto themselves for exactly why that happens.

3. 01:15Claim · condensed

   Each reason is as important as the next but the reality is that a shift does occur, from max pain to indifference, as interest wanes.

4. 01:48Idea

   The energy that you have transformed in the real world and then handed over to the network to someone else that has also transformed energy inside the network to gain access over Bitcoin.

5. 01:48Event

   If you have never seen that dwindled down to the levels that they are at today, if you bought the top and you feel somehow slighted, the pain and the fear that you are going through is something that will eventually give way.

6. 02:25Claim · condensed

   If Bitcoin makes the extended order more efficient and it can't be killed, those two things, that very simple thesis, is the overarching thesis you need to continually remind yourself of. You don't have to understand anything about it under the hood.

7. 02:25Analogy

   Just like you don't have to understand how to drive a car or how a car actually functions or all of the different aspects that go into it. All you have to know is that it can get you from A to B and if you push the pedal on right, it's going to get you there faster than if you don't.

8. 02:55Claim · condensed

   How quickly adoption happens comes down to almost an infinite number of possibilities, an infinite number of things that need to take place. This once in a species digital property grab is about building and prepping for the next wave to capitalize as much as humanly possible.

9. 03:38Reference

   There is certainly, you know, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon in full effect, yet I am still in awe of what I see before me.

10. 03:38Quote

    Yes, it is envious to feel that raw pain for the first time of, fuck, have I made the biggest mistake of my life? Have I been this naive to believe that a system existed outside of the norm?

11. 04:44Idea

    For myself, the win has been the issue. The win has been the problem. The win has been the cause of all of these things.

12. 04:44Quote

    If you can make it through that pain period, that's when you start to realize that it truly is unstoppable.

13. 05:16Analogy

    I still wake up sometimes thinking today's news will surely be the one that breaks the retaining walls on the flood waters of fiat reality.

14. 05:54Idea

    Falling implies little energy investment by the participant, it is more passive than active. At a certain point you will hit the knowledge floor. And then you have to make the real decision: wait to fall again, or start digging. You can only fall down a hole that someone or something else has created. But you can dig your own. The more you dig, the easier it is for all others to fall.

15. 06:25Claim

    If you are able to take data, transform it into information by recognizing patterns, and then examine that data to develop knowledge and then turn it into wisdom, you only have to do it once. The extended order only has to do it once, and then it can be shared and learned by others, at a faster and faster rate.

16. 08:01Claim

    The war on Bitcoin is losing to the massive acceleration of mandatory time preference shifts that is happening in the world today. The vast majority of the extended order simply don't have the ability to save.

17. 08:01Quote

    Basically people can't afford to give a shit.

18. 08:32Idea

    With a system, with a change so complex as a shift from the fiat world to the Bitcoin world, there needs to be deep holes that individuals can fall down as easily as possible, with as little input as possible. But that simply won't happen until those holes have been dug, until that work has been done.

19. 10:46Claim

    In the development cycle of Bitcoin, and building the possible killer apps of Bitcoin, we aren't even close to where it needs to be.

20. 11:30Open question

    The question becomes, well, what has to be done? Where does it have to go in order to force change, in order to produce enough of a negative side effect that an alternative will no longer be sought out, where the reality of what Bitcoin offers can reach its true value.

21. 12:04Prediction

    Bitcoin adoption won't happen because it hits $100,000. It will hit $100,000 because there is no alternative, because max pain has set in, darkness has become unavoidable.

22. 12:35Analogy

    Think of it in a parent child way. When does a child seek out the comfort that a parent offers? When everything is good and safe and calm, or when they are most fearful? The scarier the situation, the more exaggerated the child will seek out the comfort of the parent.

23. 13:44Analogy

    That is when the analogy of a fire in a crowded movie theater. That is when it will be fully ablaze. They will not recognize the value until there is nowhere else to turn.

24. 13:44Quote

    It looks like maximum pain. It looks like panic. It looks like despair.

25. 14:46Claim

    You think capital controls because your government is corrupt or incompetent or both, Bitcoin fixes this. You think censorship because you aren't acquiescing to the powers that be, Bitcoin fixes that. Physical constraints between two willing parties who can't actually access each other, Bitcoin fixes this. All of this is happening now and adoption is growing, but not nearly as quickly as I would have predicted.

26. 15:17Claim

    Adoption is quicker than the internet, it might very well be the fastest a tool has ever been adopted by the extended order, but still it seems slower than the spread of the fiat world's issues.

27. 15:49Claim

    The goal here is to create as much unnecessary pain as possible. Pain here defined as wasted energy transformation or allocation.

28. 15:49Quote

    If your thesis is that the population is going to get smarter, healthier and more adept at problem solving, then you are on crack.

29. 16:22Claim

    Things need to get worse in order to force change, in order to make it so that you cannot ignore the effects of something more reliable than the money that you are holding.

30. 16:56Prediction

    The prediction of more pain must be true, and in fact it has to be orders of magnitude more pain. Not for everyone, the Bitcoin life vote is always there and that option can always be taken.

31. 16:56Analogy

    No one needs the lifeboat. No one needs Bitcoin until face down in the freezing cold shark infested waters of the North Atlantic and the last final notes of the band fade into silence.

32. 18:01Idea

    Even with Bitcoin, all you have is a claim on energy reserves of the whole of the system. And if the whole has less energy, you will also struggle, you will also have less energy. Bitcoin is a reflection of what happens in the real world.

33. 18:35Claim

    Bitcoiners know that in order to succeed, we need everyone succeeding. Everyone doing their maximum in the energy transformation game means more abundance for everyone.

34. 18:35Prediction

    The more likely outcome is that I'm wrong to the downside. It gets worse than I thought it would have to get, because right now I think it's horrible.

35. 19:12Reference

    I saw a note on Twitter the other day talking about the uncanny valley. The scariest part about the uncanny valley is that it means there is a possibility that sometime in the past, there was an evolutionary advantage to being uncomfortable with things that looked and acted human, but weren't.

36. 19:57Claim

    That is probably the moment all the things Bitcoin does would finally realize their true potential for value. When the extended order can rely on nothing more, all the other alternatives have shown themselves less reliable, less trustworthy, only Bitcoin will remain.

37. 21:32Claim

    In order to take over as the global reserve asset, as something that can be held on corporate balance sheets outside of someone like MicroStrategy, it is a fucking shit show. That's just the reality of where we are in the building phase of things, the solutions just are not there.

38. 21:32Reference

    As something that can be exchanged and held on corporate balance sheets outside of someone like a MicroStrategy that is a very unique position.

39. 21:32Analogy

    It's like trying to build a website before WordPress. You could do it, if you really invested lots and lots of time.

40. 22:43Claim

    Never forgetting that through all the noise, all the price levels, all the clown world stuff, the basic thesis that Bitcoin is a tool that makes the extended order more efficient at energy transformation, and it can't be stopped or shut down, therefore these things being true, eventually will win.

41. 23:45Idea

    There are lots of solutions and systems that need to be in place before the rabbit hole is deep enough to fall all the way down to the base level.

42. 24:31Prediction

    So the prediction is more pain. And if you are in your first cycle and experiencing this pain for the first time, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

43. 25:06Claim

    It will be exposed, it will be brought to light, because the alternatives will lie, the alternatives will cheat, the alternatives will be corrupt.

44. 25:38Claim

    People don't adopt tools like the internet to stay on the cutting edge. They adopt the tools out of necessity because they are getting annihilated by those that have already adopted.

45. 26:42Claim

    Even though Bitcoiners who buy and use Bitcoin are at a significant advantage over people that operate in the fiat world, you can still shield your eyes from that reality, until it becomes unavoidable.

46. 27:22Prediction

    There isn't a fiat price on some amount of Bitcoin right now. And as that number grows, as conviction grows, that is when you will see levels of energy flow into Bitcoin that at present moments seem unimaginable.