The Short-Term

Every passage, on the record.

1. 01:33Claim

   If you're going to generate returns in the fiat system, there are very specific rules that you have to play by. And if you are going to play by those rules, number one, you have to learn them, then you have to learn how to exploit those rules or how to use them or how to leverage them to the best of your advantage.

2. 02:54Quote

   This entire time I couldn't help but think, what a massive waste of energy to go through all of these processes and just how much of the day that must suck up.

3. 03:30Reference

   Not being able to identify where you sit in the stack, right, and how it's very similar to the ideas that Michael Seles talked about in the past about just how inefficient it is if you are operating in Argentina, or any other country that is experiencing hyperinflation.

4. 03:30Claim

   What you're doing with your time and energy is you're trying to find the best company, the one that is the most efficient company at transforming energy from inaccessible to accessible in those countries, thinking that you are being a good steward of the energy that you have built up, all the while ignoring what is happening a layer below that.

5. 04:09Claim

   One of the great parts about Bitcoin is there is no layer below it, it is a brand new system, and it is the base layer, there is nothing below it, from which you can be rugged, it is in and of itself, a system that is wholly defined, and not reliant on the outside world at all, except for the continued supply of energy to make sure that it's able to work as designed.

6. 04:40Analogy

   It's almost as fantastical as the idea of Never Never Land, to believe that any competent energy transformer, let alone the most proficient energy transformers inside of a system, the one percenters, could specialize at what they are good at and also be able to look after that energy going forward.

7. 05:29Reference

   That's how difficult the system makes it. And if that's how difficult it makes it for the top performers, what does that mean for the rest of the extended order?

8. 06:02Claim

   If life, our goal is to accumulate as many energy reserves as we possibly can to ensure that we have the best chance of survival in an unknowable world, the more energy we have access to, the higher the likelihood that we're able to sustain and push past whatever the hardships might be.

9. 06:37Reference

   As Saifedin Amous, the author of the Bitcoin Standard, so eloquently expresses, when you are stuck inside the fiat system, you are forced to work twice for your money, twice for your ability to secure access to future resources, twice to ensure the work you have done will provide for you in the future.

10. 07:08Claim

    Once in the very simple, easy to understand act of providing value to the extended order, you compensated for that. Then again, you need to do that in order to keep those reserves under your control, because if there are energy reserves but you don't control them, you are not any safer.

11. 07:42Claim

    You don't have a say, you don't have a choice, you don't have the ability to opt out. You must either allocate to harder assets, or be parted from your reserves, there is no other option.

12. 08:45Quote

    Bitcoin, luckily, removes middlemen, it removes gatekeepers of information and access, through its transparency, and through it being permissionless. And at the same time, trust is completely removed, which makes up the largest pool of diverted capital in the outsourcing process.

13. 09:18Claim

    We remove what we would like to think of as able bodied individuals from the real production of economic value, and incentivize their participation in this siphoning process. So the financialization of the world is a drain in and of itself.

14. 09:49Claim

    The best and the brightest react to the incentives in place, and thus, like moths to a flame, are pulled to where they can divert the largest amount of energy with the least amount of output.

15. 10:36Claim

    If you're in the finance world, what do you need? You need customers. How do you get customers? You want to make it as complex as possible. Why? Because then they need the information that you have access to.

16. 11:07Claim

    The more complex, the larger the opportunity costs to do it yourself. So from inside the system, it works best for everyone involved to make the system appear as complex as possible, thus removing the ability for the average Joe to be able to navigate the waters without the guiding hand of the so-called experts.

17. 12:12Quote · condensed

    This is totally expected. Why? Because they make the system so complex. This is not a random output of the system. This is the design of the system.

18. 12:44Analogy

    So we're making it harder and harder to climb out of the bucket. Everyone else is clawing at each other, bringing each other down.

19. 13:17Reference

    This is the middleman tactic, right? It isn't new. It's not isolated to the world of fiat currency. The most famous one is the church and Latin, right, that's the one that is the most parallel to these circumstances. If you're taking advantage of a subset of a subset of the population, you want to keep them dependent.

20. 13:49Quote

    In the end, when the system caves in on itself from its own largesse, the sunshine of truth pours in and nothing is left. It's completely gone.

21. 14:57Claim

    Energy allocators who grow their reserves over time, as opposed to growing through transformation, are extremely influential. They are seen to be wise beyond just the market realm. There's a whole industry built on top of tracking their mindsets, their daily habits, the books that they read.

22. 15:28Prediction

    Is there any reason to believe that this will change as Bitcoin adoption grows and obsoletes so much of this so-called industry? I don't think so. I think this is the future for Bitcoiners. I think exactly what has happened in the legacy space will happen in the Bitcoin space.

23. 16:03Prediction

    Let's say it's the years 2028 and clown world's at an all-time high, inflation is through the roof, goods that used to be everyday items are now few and far between. There is little hope for things to change. But then you see a very small subset of individuals experiencing the polar opposite.

24. 16:35Claim

    This is where it becomes obvious that Bitcoiners will be studied. And if Bitcoin is successful, early allocators to Bitcoin will be studied. And by early, I mean anyone before you got in will be looked up to.

25. 17:09Analogy

    It's almost akin to the arrival of the Europeans in the New World, the almost extinction level event that took place simply because the New World population was unaware and therefore couldn't have known what exposure to new life would bring. They hadn't come to grips with the biological defense systems necessary to carry on living in the face of mere exposure to the outside world.

26. 17:47Claim

    Bitcoin in absolute scarcity makes the extended order more efficient. But to get there, it might not be the prettiest, most comfortable path for those slow to build up a tolerance.

27. 18:17Claim

    By definition, in the Bitcoin system, those that hold Bitcoin have contributed the most to the survival of the system. And survival of the system is made possible by the contribution of energy. Therefore, we know that those who have the most Bitcoin are the most competent energy allocators. The system is self-sorting in that way.

28. 18:49Claim

    With extremely low supply and what appears to be increasingly frantic demand that ultimately has no end, those stacks will last longer than they should. And it's true that good, competent actors will be completely decimated, a good, large number of those individuals will be completely decimated.

29. 18:49Quote

    They won't see it coming because they don't have the energy to pick their heads up. They will get washed away in the great breaking of the dam.

30. 19:22Analogy

    Imagine having a million dollars in a bank account right now or in a 401k, a life's work, and then imagine it dissolving to zero in the span of five years. Worthless in a Bitcoin world. Claims that no one values.

31. 19:57Quote

    The wealth transfer that is coming looks to be the most violent, not in terms of physical violence in the streets, but rather the speed and force at which it arrives on unsuspecting victims.

32. 20:39Event

    We've seen glimpses of this new reality in the regional banking crisis and the exodus these last few months, deposits fleeing the system at unbelievable speeds, a tidal wave of panic in a flight to anywhere it can find shelter.

33. 21:13Reference

    The volatility will be through the roof. And the historical precedence for this is something like the Weimar Republic. If you look at the charts of the collapse of the Weimar Republic, you see just how volatile it becomes because people think at the time that they are cashing out at an opportune time because the number go up.

34. 21:46Claim

    We can't see exactly what breaks the system, only that it has to, right? It has to eat itself. And if that is the case, there's some very scary thoughts on the other side, especially when we are transitioning to a new world where absolute scarcity exists and it's real and it's enforceable.

35. 22:27Claim

    Once you see Bitcoin is the one allocation to rule them all, you end up being able to opt out of the energy drain on maintaining purchasing power after initial value providing.

36. 22:27Claim

    Now that you can go straight to the money layer and bypass all of the traditional value investing principles to look for the most efficient companies, it doesn't make any sense to even look in that direction because it's not going to be as efficient as simply allocating to the base layer.

37. 24:23Analogy

    It's the idea that you are a spear fisherman on the side of a river, and 99% of the time you're doing nothing. But that 1% of the time you need to act incredibly decisively.

38. 24:55Quote

    Bitcoin really is value investing on steroids. It's in this brief window, in this time that is 1% in the value investing world. It's even smaller in the Bitcoin world. You make a well-timed allocation, and that's all that it takes. That's it. The job is done.

39. 25:25Claim

    By removing your energy from the system, what you're saying is that you are going to be more efficient than the extended order, than any member of the extended order who is willing to take that energy off your hands.

40. 26:01Quote

    So the entire time, or I would say 99.9999% of the time, the answer should be don't touch Bitcoin. Because the system itself is sorting through all of the various mechanisms, all of the various entities that might make it more efficient, and the chances of it being you are incredibly small.

41. 26:35Claim

    Energy compounding takes time. So the goal then becomes how do you stay in the game to get the maximum amount of time exposure to the compounding. It is about making sure you can stay on the horse for as long a ride as possible. The most successful strategy you could put together goes something like this: get as much Bitcoin as you can, as fast as you can.

42. 27:07Claim

    Using leverage is out. There's simply too much risk. When the upsides are so great, a small amount of Bitcoin is so beneficial to you, it's difficult to resist the urge to chase for more and expose your entire stack.

43. 27:50Idea

    The lessons from value investing boil down to find the best entropy combatants and hitch your wagon to them for as long as you can.

44. 28:25Quote

    All you have to do then to not fuck this up is to just stay in the game. That becomes the sole focus. The asset itself does the best.

45. 28:57Prediction

    In the future, none of it will actually be applicable, because if future generations are looking to generate anywhere near the compounding Bitcoiners experience now, it simply won't be possible because it will be used up. The only wisdom that will remain is allocate to the most and stay afloat.

46. 29:41Prediction

    Bitcoin will clear the noise of the charlatans posing as great energy stewards. It's going to eliminate those things in the long run. And when the information arbitrage is gone, it will only leave value. So Bitcoin will climb with global productivity and it will continue to increase.

47. 30:14Claim · condensed

    That's where most people think it'll level off, at whatever the quoted figure is, 2% of global productivity. But that's a figure that is in spite of the restraints in place of the current fiat system, so in all likelihood that number is going to be larger if we eliminate the poor allocation necessitated by the fiat system.

48. 30:47Prediction

    In the future, it will not be a strategy to buy Bitcoin. The strategy will be to scan the horizon for efficiency jumps and then allocate to benefit from those occurrences while staying above water so that compounding can occur.

49. 30:47Analogy

    There won't be podcasts on buying Bitcoin or why you should have Bitcoin. It'll just be obvious, just like there are podcasts on drinking water or breathing air.

50. 31:23Claim

    It isn't Bitcoin, but rather what emerges from the existence of Bitcoin that moves the needle. The real lesson will be in what Bitcoiners possessed in order to find their way into the system. That will be the gift of this time to future generations.

51. 32:03Reference

    The majority of them will be complete nonsense and of little use. The reality, it's almost like the bell curve meme that is projected daily on Twitter.

52. 32:35Quote

    You back efficiency and then you consume less than you transform.

53. 32:35Claim

    The idea that things like the need for diversity, it will be simply washed away. Diversity is safety. If you don't have all of the information, you can't make an educated decision, so all you can do is sort of cover all the bases just to make sure you're not going to get completely hosed.

54. 33:07Quote

    With Bitcoin, that noise is eliminated. And then what that allows you to do, which is the most common of all the advice that comes from those that have experienced any success in value investing, is to know what you own.

55. 33:46Quote

    Bitcoin gives you the wonderful gift of freeing up an enormous amount of time to learn about it because it does the work without your effort. You can play at a layer below that that encompasses all of the above layers.

56. 35:27Claim

    The benefits really come when you start thinking in terms of stats. You use that as your unit of account, because then you see just how backwards everything else is trending against Bitcoin itself.

57. 36:35Claim

    It's like all you have to do is transform more energy than you consume. If you want to continually grow your Bitcoin stack, well then all you do is reverse that equation, and now you allocate stats to those that have the services that you desire.